First, a quick summary :
As George Bush senior once said, when asked by a reporter if the timing he gave for adopting urgent changes to policy was necessary "We may have jumped the gun on this one."
Section 2 (1) C of the terrorism prevention act of 2011, explicitly states that only a federal judge can declare a movement, any movement, as a terrorist organization, pursuant to an argument filed to said judge by the nations attorney General. As a matter of law, IPOB cannot yet be considered a terrorist organization. The military as it stands, have no legal, constitutional, or even directory authority, to make such a proclamation.
The administration may well rectify this oversight in the near future. However, the perception many already have of an administration lacking cohesion is only further perpetuated by the manner in which IPOB was first proscribed
To our eternal detriment, we are not a nation whose leaders possess the capacity for, or the depth of, contemplation and foresight.
Nnamdi Kanu is the leader of a secessionist movement that takes inspiration from a struggle that began in the ruins of Nigeria's first Republic. Wherein a section of the nation, having witnessed a pogrom upon their people and growing wary of what appeared to be intransigence from the then military led federal government, opted to forgo the Nigerian Union and create a nation of their own; Biafra.
A civil war, both Nigeria's greatest sin and most costly mistake to this very day, was fought over this, with the Nigerians emerging the Victor.
Fast forward some 50 odd years and the election of the current President, himself a former military head of state, brought with it the spectre of ethno religious jingoism,long looming over the horizon. Partly because of the dismay caused by a Nigerian from the Biafran region having been defeated after only one term, (something which has never happened in Nigeria) and partly because our leaders were so adept at sowing the seeds of discord from 2010 hence- Goodluck Jonathan's election defeat signalled a period of frustration and reprisal in his region of the country in particular. Militants from the Niger Delta crippled the Nigerian oil machine for well over a year. After over half a decade of silence. The timing was conspicuous. The New President, Buhari, being both a former General, and a man of strict character, chose to solve the growing discontent the only way a military man knows how. Mobilizing the now re-energized Nigerian army and security services, who under Jonathan had been in disarray, to quell dissent. His anti corruption war, as imperative to the nations interests as it is, became a lopsided affair, wherein the vast majority of the people arrested and brought infront of a judge, were opposition members. And a good number of those, by virtue of political affiliation, happened to be Nigerians of "Biafran" extraction. Judges deemed to be at loggerheads with the administration were arrested by security services at the behest of the Commander in chief. Journalists and even NGOs not aligned with the government were made to feel the force of its apparatus. And in the midst of all this, the president himself and certainly his handlers, took the ppls patience and goodwill for granted. Much was lost in translation by a president averse to political leanings (if you can believe that). The administration came off as cold, aloof and caught unawares.
As Nigeria's recession deepened, and crime and disorder began overwhelming the nation's security forces, Heavy handed tactics with minority groups, such as the Shiite in the North, and the governments seeming inability to quickly and judiciously handle security issues that were NOT Boko Haraam (such as murderous cattle rustlers that terrorized farmers in the middle belt and south, or the aforementioned Niger Delta militants) did little to disprove the growing notion that this was an administration, overwhelmed by the depth of the problems it was facing.
This was the backdrop in which Nnamdi Kanu, a dual Nigerian and UK citizen, came into prominence. His "Radio Biafra", where he raised against the government in tribalistic, counterfactual and many a times violent rhetoric, unfortunately garnered him a large following among disenfranchised and now angered populace of the South East region.
The government in its characteristic bluster, hoping to avoid the emergence of another separatist group, swiftly arrested Kanu and charged him at a federal court, with several counts of treasonable felonies.
The case had little merit and he was released on bail after several months in detention. He did not relent. And why would he when, by acknowledging him in such a manner, the FG had unwittingly made his the defacto voice of the opposition. After months of flouting his bail conditions, the military moved in to his home compound, in the southern state of Abia, in an effort to arrest him. Some of his supporters were tortured, some reports say a few killed, as the soldiers moved in, armored tanks and all. Kanu himself is currently presumed to be on the run. His whereabouts unknown.
The ripple effects have begun to show, as yesterday the northern city of Jos was put under curfew, when reports came in of trouble brewing btwn ppls of northern and southern extraction. Ppl of northern extraction currently domiciled in the South East, have reportedly been threatened with bloody retaliation. Conflicting reports say that there has been violence;with Kanus supporters capturing and killing non Indigenes of the region.
Clear observation :
Military action does not rectify extant issues. At best it serves to deter immediate fallout, at worst it completely exacerbates the situation. Someone willing to stand against a tank and throw a bottle is not afraid of bodily harm. We see this even in Palestine. Supporters of Kanu, in their tens of thousands are convinced that the FG is an oppressive and unjust actor. What does the use of military force do other than reinforce that narrative?
This was the exact course of action the government took to deal with Muhammad Yusuf (founder of Boko Haraam) and his supporters well before they turned to armed rebellion. Before their hate speech turned to gunfire. We know where that got us.
We cannot continue to make the same mistakes and not expect further, more virulent retaliation, down the line.
Not just in Nigeria, but Africa in general. The days of military force, must be put behind us. Battles are won on the diplomacy table, long before the first Salvo ever reaches the battlefield.